How key terms are used in this report: Regular migrants, asylum seekers and refugees The refugee flows of the last few years, however, are extremely high compared with the historical average in recent decades, and already have begun to decline as the European Union and many of its member states have made policy changes aimed at limiting refugee flows ( see sidebar). In this scenario, Muslims could make up 14% of Europe’s population by 2050 – nearly triple the current share, but still considerably smaller than the populations of both Christians and people with no religion in Europe. Under these conditions, Muslims could reach 11.2% of Europe’s population in 2050.įinally, a “high” migration scenario projects the record flow of refugees into Europe between 20 to continue indefinitely into the future with the same religious composition (i.e., mostly made up of Muslims) in addition to the typical annual flow of regular migrants. This is because Muslims are younger (by 13 years, on average) and have higher fertility (one child more per woman, on average) than other Europeans, mirroring a global pattern.Ī second, “medium” migration scenario assumes that all refugee flows will stop as of mid-2016 but that recent levels of “regular” migration to Europe will continue (i.e., migration of those who come for reasons other than seeking asylum see note on terms below).
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The baseline for all three scenarios is the Muslim population in Europe (defined here as the 28 countries presently in the European Union, plus Norway and Switzerland) as of mid-2016, estimated at 25.8 million (4.9% of the overall population) – up from 19.5 million (3.8%) in 2010.Įven if all migration into Europe were to immediately and permanently stop – a “zero migration” scenario – the Muslim population of Europe still would be expected to rise from the current level of 4.9% to 7.4% by the year 2050. These are not efforts to predict what will happen in the future, but rather a set of projections about what could happen under different circumstances.
To see how the size of Europe’s Muslim population may change in the coming decades, Pew Research Center has modeled three scenarios that vary depending on future levels of migration. This wave of Muslim migrants has prompted debate about immigration and security policies in numerous countries and has raised questions about the current and future number of Muslims in Europe. In recent years, Europe has experienced a record influx of asylum seekers fleeing conflicts in Syria and other predominantly Muslim countries. With so many people disconnected, the question has to be asked: where are people still hiding their money under the mattress? Unsurprisingly, The World Bank's data shows that the situation is worst in developing countries and in Africa and Asia in particular.Migrants who had arrived via buses chartered by Austrian authorities walk toward the border to Germany on Oct. The situation is slowly improving, however, with 1.2 billion people getting access to proper banking since 2011, including over half a billion people in the last three years alone.Īside from the obvious advantages of not having to store money throughout the house, a bank account connects people to the formal financial system and enables them to make day-to-day living less complicated as well as allowing them to build up their assets. Some 1.7 billion adults worldwide still don't have access to a bank account, according to data released by the World Bank. Elsewhere, the concept of financial inclusion remains a pipe-dream. Across much of the developed world, people take their bank accounts for granted, safe in the knowledge that their money is secure and that there's an ATM close at hand.
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